NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Bubble Drivers Game Plan for Charlotte

By David Morgan, Associate Editor

CONCORD, N.C. – Game on.

Seven spots in the next round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are still up for grabs in Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, the second elimination race of the postseason.

When the checkered flag flies, four drivers will be going home with their title hopes having gone up in smoke.

As it sits, William Byron is the lone driver that has already punched his ticket to the Round of 8 on points. Behind him, there are those that are likely safe with enough of a points cushion, those in danger of falling out, and those that will be fighting for their Playoff lives from the drop of the green flag on Sunday.

Christopher Bell has the most breathing room with a 57-point advantage over the cut-off line, meaning he’s all but locked into the next round. He’s followed by Kyle Larson (+52), Denny Hamlin (+30), Alex Bowman (+26), and defending series champion Ryan Blaney (+25), all of whom have enough of a points buffer that they should be safe enough to move on to the next round.

From seventh on back, it’s a different story.

Regular season champion Tyler Reddick holds a 14-point advantage over the cut line in seventh, which gives him some breathing room, but not much. The driver of the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota will hope to turn around his Playoff luck and channel his previous road course success to keep his postseason run going.

Reddick has been in this position before, including a year ago when he came in below the cut line, but was able to race his way in with a sixth-place result.

This time around, Reddick has the speed to contend on Sunday, having posted the second-fastest time in qualifying, where he’ll join Shane van Gisbergen on the front row when the green flag drops.

“It’s not great, but it’s better than I think where we were last year,” Reddick said of his situation. “So, I’m pretty neutral on it at the moment. Like if qualifying goes good, we do our part today, we just have many more options as the race gets going [Sunday].”

Reddick added that even with his road course prowess, the unknown of the new layout and the chaotic nature of Cup Series road course racing will have him and his team on their toes on Sunday.

“I think because of the braking zones, at any point, you know, your day could drastically change,” Reddick said. “We saw it happen to a number of drivers last year here, so I wouldn’t say you’re ever really comfortable. But if you do your part in stage one and two and get close enough to the front, I feel like in stage three, you should be okay.

“But again, that kind of just depends on who you’re around. I mean, we had to come in here last year we were under and came out above by good bit. So, the confidence of our performance is high. But in a place like this where it’s so many different braking zones, how narrow the track can be, the room for error is very small.”

Two-time Charlotte ROVAL winner Chase Elliott is clinging to the final transfer spot with a 13-point gap over those on the outside looking in. If Elliott can have a solid day, he can play defense to keep the drivers from ninth on back from knocking him out.

Points will be on the mind of all of the drivers on the Playoff bubble, especially those playing defense on the positive side of the line entering the day.

“I think in a perfect world, you try to get some stage points in the first stage,” Elliott said. If you have a shot to win, you probably flip the second one and hope you’re in a position to take advantage of it. Anything short of being super fast, I think you have to take advantage of the stage points and just do your best on the finish.

“I’ve run a good number of laps in the sim. It’s way different than it was last year. Really, I’ve treated it like a new track and I will continue to do that, you know, until we get some reps and some laps out there in real life. So, way different.

“The flow is totally changed, and I think getting through that kink to the right and over that hill is gonna be really important and having your car set up well to take on that type of elevation change. Crazy that you have that much in the infield here, but yeah, we’ll see. I’m looking forward to giving it a shot.”

Elliott added that even though he has won here twice, the changes to the track has him in a different mindset going into Sunday as he looks to protect his points position.

“I think I would have a little more comfort without a layout change, but with the layout change, I think it’s just a total reset button here for this track, and I think it’s totally gonna change how it races and how it drives. Hopefully I can adapt quickly and get our race where it needs to be. But I have no expectations because I’m treating it like I’ve never been here before.

Entering the day on the negative of the cut-off line is Joey Logano, who has been on a skid since winning at Atlanta to start the Playoffs, but will look to turn things around on Sunday at a track in which he has finished in the top-10 in all but one of his six starts at the track.

Logano will start Sunday’s race on the outside of the second row in fourth place.

“We’ve just got to go attack,” Logano said.

“We’re definitely not out of it. Qualifying good is going to help that for sure. And probably help give us an idea of how we’re gonna call a race. So, we’ll know more after today. I mean, 13 points is definitely doable. We can do that. We gotta race some of the best cars to do that. So, it’s not gonna be simple or easy by no means, but, um, it’s definitely doable.”

Next up is Daniel Suarez, who comes in 20 points back and has been preparing like crazy for this race with sim time all week long to learn the new ROVAL layout as he aims to go for the win on Sunday.

“I’ve been preparing for this race for almost two weeks, along with my team,” said Suarez. “This week alone, I was in the simulator Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. So I’ve been working very hard along with my team, not just myself, to prepare for this race. So I can tell you something, we’re as prepared as it can be. Now we have to go execute and see where we stack up.”

Suarez added that going out and winning the race outright is still the plan, but the outside possibility to point his way in given the chaotic nature of road course racing in the Cup Series could change that plan on race day.

“20 points, it’s a lot of points, but if something happens, like we can still point our way in,” Suarez said. “I can’t remember if it’s Chase Briscoe or who is the last one in the group…that’s a long shot. Honestly, that reminds me a lot of what happened to myself in 2022. I came here with like 15 or 18 points to the good, and then my steering broke and I finished 32nd and I got knocked out.

“So, anything can happen here, man. If anything can happen, we just have to take one step at a time. As of right now the goal is to win and we’ll see how things play out.”

Road course ace Austin Cindric is in must-win territory on Sunday, as he is 29 markers back from the top-eight. Look for Cindric and the No. 2 Team Penske group to be laser focused on Victory Lane from the drop of the green flag.

“It’s a cutoff race and two pretty tragic races to start the Round of 12 here. We kind of have to go in here with the mindset of winning the race, which simplifies things in a lot of ways,” Cindric said. “It certainly simplifies strategy thoughts and thoughts in preparation for the race. It’s not the situation you want to be in, but it’s something we’re certainly prepared to go after and fight for.”

Cindric noted that there is an outside chance for his team to be able to point their way in, but it will take a lot of help for that to happen, so for him, it’s either win or go home.

“If something happens – I think the 45 and the 9 and the 11 in the first stage to where they’re not getting points or they’re out of the race or something like that, I think a lot has to happen for us to not just go for the win,” Cindric added. 

“Honestly, if you look at these road course events with how much flipping stages versus race finish and all that, I feel like everyone kind of averages out with a lot more similar points than they would if the race was just run straight up without the ability to flip stages, so I think the opportunity to gain points on road courses or lose points on a road course is pretty average, honestly. So, from that standpoint, 29 points back, I think you just put your best foot forward and go for a win.”

Bringing up the back of the Playoff points standings in Chase Briscoe, who made it into the postseason with a walk-off win at Darlington and will more than likely need another to keep his Cinderella run alive.

Briscoe, who welcomed newborn twins earlier this week has been running ragged off-track, but finds himself at peace on track with the knowledge his team has done this once before and they can certainly do it again.

However, if he is going to win, he’ll have his work cut out for him, starting the worst of the Playoff drivers in 25^th place.

“I think for me, you know, I don’t feel worried at all,” Briscoe said. “I honestly feel a lot like I did going into the Darlington week, where I know that we can win here.

“We’ve done it before in the Xfinity level, but this is a track I feel really good about. Our road course stuff has been really good. If you look at Watkins Glen and things like that. So I’m not really nervous. There’s not a whole lot that I feel like isn’t capable by our team when we do everything right.

“It’s just going to take a good weekend, and with where we’re at in the points I feel like it makes it easier to win the race just because you don’t have to put yourself where you get the points then you restart 20th every single time. You can just flip the track position and you’re gonna start up front every time, so I feel really good about it truthfully.”