By David Morgan, Associate Editor
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. – One more race to make the Chase.
The regular season for the NASCAR Cup Series comes down to Saturday night’s running of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway to determine which drivers will join the 16-driver field for the Chase with a shot at going for the championship.
With 25 races already completed, the top-13 drivers in the standings have already punched their ticket, with the remaining three spots to be locked up on Saturday night.
Mathematically, only five drivers are still alive in the hunt for those three spots, with those being Bubba Wallace (+75), Austin Cindric (+44), Shane van Gisbergen (+31), Ryan Preece (-31), and Brad Keselowski (-66).
Wallace is a virtual lock for the Chase needing only two points to secure his spot, while Cindric can clinch with 33 points, and van Gisbergen can clinch with 45 points.
The two RFK Racing drivers in Preece and Keselowski will need a stumble from those above them in points to make it in.
In addition to the battle for the final spots in the Chase, perhaps the bigger story Saturday night will be the changes to the aerodynamic package on the Cup cars to help alleviate some of the issues with the Next Gen car on tracks like Daytona and Talladega.
The rear spoiler has been lowered from seven inches to four, matching the same spoiler height used on intermediate tracks to cut down on drag. Horsepower has also been lowered from 510 to 465 to balance out the lower drag numbers.
How much of an effect it will have varies depending on who you ask, but with no practice, drivers and teams will be thrown right into the deep end on Saturday to figure it out on the fly.
“I think this weekend has potential to be absolute f****** chaos,” Denny Hamlin, the No. 1 seed heading into the Chase, said on his Actions Detrimental podcast earlier this week.
“…The data I’m seeing on this new package, I think the cars could be far more out of control when they are trying to push each other, which could cause smoke and when there’s smoke, there’s a wreck.”
“You always see in these superspeedway races, three to four laps to go in the end of the stage, I mean, the bumps start getting heavy,” Hamlin added. “And I think that someone is getting to get, I think lots of someone’s is going to get caught off guard by how unstable these cars are when they’re getting shoved around.”
By the Numbers
What: Coke Zero Sugar 400, NASCAR Cup Series Race No. 26 of 36
Where: Daytona International Speedway – Daytona Beach, Florida (Opened: 1959)
When: August 29, 2026
TV/Radio: NBC, 7:30 pm ET / MRN and Sirius XM NASCAR Channel 90
Track Size: 2.5-mile tri-oval
Banking: 31 degrees in turns, 18 degrees in tri-oval, 6 degrees on straightaways
Race Length: 160 laps, 400 miles
Stage Lengths: First stage: 35 laps; Second stage: 60 laps; Final Stage: 65 laps
Pit Road Speed: 55 mph
Pace Car Speed: 70 mph
2026 Daytona 500 Race Winner: Tyler Reddick – No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota (Started 26th, one lap led)
August 2025 Race Winner: Ryan Blaney – No. 12 Team Penske Ford (Started on pole, 27 laps led)
Track Qualifying Record: Bill Elliott (42.783 seconds, 210.364 mph – 02/15/1987)
Top-10 Highest Driver Ratings at Daytona:
- Joey Logano – No. 22 Team Penske Ford – 89.9
- Denny Hamlin – No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota – 85.7
- Ryan Blaney – No. 12 Team Penske Ford – 84.1
- Austin Cindric – No. 2 Team Penske Ford – 82.0
- Chase Elliott – No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet – 81.4
- Bubba Wallace – No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota – 80.9
- Christopher Bell – No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota – 80.6
- Brad Keselowski – No. 6 RFK Racing Ford – 79.6
- William Byron – No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet – 77.9
- Chris Buescher – No. 17 RFK Racing Ford – 75.9
Last Time at Daytona
After a caution flag with nine laps to go bunched the field up for a final dash to the checkered, it was anyone’s guess who was going to come out on top with Michael McDowell, Tyler Reddick, Carson Hocevar, two-time and defending 500 champion William Byron and Brad Keselowski all in the mix among the top-five.
As things shuffled out following the restart with four to go, it appeared that it would come down to a battle between the Spire Motorsports teammates in McDowell and Hocevar, but as has become commonplace at Daytona, a lot of things can happen between the white flag and the checkered.
Hocevar held the lead at the white, but a bump off the nose of Erik Jones’ Toyota would send him spinning in front of the pack, with Hocevar, Jones, and McDowell all taken out of contention in one fell swoop.
That would set up a three-wide scramble for the lead among Reddick, Stenhouse, and Elliott, with Elliott getting the advantage down the backstretch with a helping hand from Zane Smith.
However, Elliott’s shot at the 500 would be short-lived after Reddick and his 23XI teammate Riley Herbst got a run thorough Turn 4 to set up the final dash to the checkered flag.
Reddick would swing high around Smith to move into second-place behind Elliott, using all of the momentum he had built to pull the crossover and power past Elliott as they entered the tri-oval.
Herbst attempted to make it three wide around Elliott on the outside, but made contact with Brad Keselowski, sending him into the outside wall and back down across the track into Elliott, hooking him into the wall. Elliott would cross the line in a shower of sparks backwards.
As the other leaders bounced off each other like pinballs, Reddick was home free as he streaked across the finish line to score his first win in the Daytona 500.
We HAVE to take another look at the final lap of the Daytona 500. pic.twitter.com/1sAaD5FZM4
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) February 15, 2026
“Last year was really hard for all of us, hard for me. When you’re a Cup driver and you get to this level and drive for Michael Jordan, it’s expected you win every single year,” said Reddick.
“For us to go on that drought we did made us look hard in the mirror, and really proud of everyone on our Chumba Casino Toyota Camry. Worked really hard in the off-season, and there was many points in this race where we weren’t making decisions we wanted to, but we just reset, and every opportunity we got to reset we went back at it.
“Just speechless. I didn’t know if I’d ever win this race. It’s surreal, honestly. Honestly, the best part is my son asked before this race, Are you finally going to win this race? Something about today just felt right.”
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. would be credited with a runner-up finish on the day, followed by Joey Logano, Elliott, and Keselowski. The remainder of the top-10 went to Smith, Chris Buescher, Herbst, Josh Berry, and Bubba Wallace.
The race would see 65 lead changes among 25 different drivers, with Wallace leading the way with 40 laps at the front of the field.
Four cautions for cause would slow the race, most notably in the waning laps of Stage 2 after Justin Allgaier triggered a 20-car pile-up following a block gone wrong on Denny Hamlin.
The three other crashes included a mechanical issue for B.J. McLeod on Lap 6 that sent him spinning in Turn 4 collecting five other cars, along with a nine-car crash on the frontstretch on Lap 86, and the final caution that would set up the finish involving Hamlin and Christopher Bell.
Weekend Schedule (All Times Eastern)
Friday, August 28
- NASCAR Cup Series Qualifying (5:00 pm – TruTV)
Saturday, August 29
- Coke Zero Sugar 400 (7:30 pm – 160 laps, 400 miles – NBC)

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